FS Insight Weekly Roadmap: What’s Next for the Market After Jackson Hole?

Looking at equity market behavior post-Jackson Hole (JH) since 2003, our analysis suggests there is a >80% equities rally post-Friday: Since 2003, there have been 7 instances of the S&P 500 down 2 weeks prior to JH. The one exception was in 2022 when S&P 500 fell by 7% in the week post-JH, but we know Fed Chair Powell's comments were uber-hawkish then. The context is different in 2023, as inflation is not only on a glide path lower, but the surge in 10-yr yields threatens a potentially greater tightening of financial conditions.