A combination of resilient economic data, hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric and a budget deficit to be financed by borrowing has the 10-year Treasury yield up more than 45 basis points in September to top 4.5% for the first time since 2007. Rates markets are priced for an almost 40% risk of another Fed hike this year, against slimmer chances for another rise in Europe, and the difference has helped prop up a dollar many had bet would swiftly fall once short-term rates peaked.
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