World markets stayed remarkably buoyant even as the chances of one more U.S. interest rate hike have moved firmly onto the radar, with China's bourses extending Monday's rally and the state of U.S. employment now top of mind. For the first time since before the regional banking crisis in March, U.S. futures now see more than a 50% chance of yet another Federal Reserve rate rise to 5.5-5.75% – where the median of Fed policymaker forecasts from their June meeting still lies. After almost two months of stability in assuming peak rates would be where they are now, the chances of another tightening have been creeping higher again over the past 10 days and appear to be cementing following Fed Chair Jerome Powell's relatively hawkish speech at Jackson Hole on Friday.
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