“The market is comfortable with the idea that the economy is slowing, consumption’s facing headwinds, but they don’t know how much it’s going to slow," said Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets in New York. Fed funds futures traders are pricing in a more than 50% probability that the Fed will begin cutting rates in March, and see 128 basis points in rate reductions by December 2024.
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